扭曲条件下资本流动对经济增长路径影响的理论分析

Theoretical Analysis on the Impact of Capital Flow under Distortion upon Economic Growth Path

一国的制度环境较差,会引起国内的扭曲,并吸引投资性的资本流动,造成本国经济的振荡和低增长。本文以资本流入为例,建立了扭曲背景下资本流动导致不同的增长路径的跨期比较模型。证明了只要本国对扭曲有较强的自我调节能力,无论国内要素的供求形势怎样变化,经济总能保持稳定,并会保持在较高增长水平之中,否则经济会不可避免地陷入振荡和低增长的境地。

If a country has low institutional quality, there must be many distortions in its internal economy, which will attract speculated capital flows, and may cause local economy into fluctuation and low growth. Taking the capital inflows as an example, the author establishes an inter-period comparative model in this paper showing that capital flows under distortion lead to different growing paths. With a strong ability of self-adjustment against distortion, national economy can always remain stable and will remain at a high growth rate despite any change in supply and demand of domestic factors. Otherwise, the economy will inevitably fall into fluctuation and lowgrowth.