全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的预测

Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

本文是William W.L.Cheung等发表于2009年出版的《鱼类与渔业》1-17页"全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的预测"一文的译文。译文作者阐述了通过气候变化可以对海洋生物多样性产生影响,改变鱼类品种。但是,气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的研究目前在全球范围还寥寥无几。本文以1066个生物鱼类和无脊椎动物的分布范围为例,应用最新的生物气候分室模型,预测了截至2050年全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性的影响。预测表明,在近极地、热带半封闭海域,气候变化可能导致大量土著品种消失。同时,外来品种侵入,尤其在南、北极海域侵入程度更大。这导致现有生物多样体中60%的品种发生戏剧性变化,这将意味着生态系统被潜在破坏而导致生态失调。这些预测可以成为未来分析研究的假设。

This paper is the translation of the article ＂Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios＂ which published in 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Authors have analyzed that climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species＇ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub-polar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60%of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.