网络蠕虫灰传播模型GEM

Modeling the Internet Worm Propagation Based on Grey Theory

网络蠕虫传播模型是研究、分析网络蠕虫传播机制、行为特性的重要方法、手段。传统网络蠕虫传播模型都是基于大数定律思想,该类方法在描述蠕虫传播的潜伏期及衰退期时存在一定缺陷,并且完全忽略蠕虫传播过程中涉及到的不确定随机因素。针对传统模型在描述蠕虫传播过程中的上述不足,本文运用灰色理论,依据灰色建模所需历史数据少,不考虑分布规律、变化趋势的特点,提出了一种网络蠕虫的灰传播模型GEM。经模拟仿真分析,验证了该模型的有效性。

Modeling the propagation of the Internet worms is an important way to study and analyze worms. Traditional models require large original data and rely on the law of larger number, which ignores the uncertainty in the Internet. To overcome the weaknesses of the traditional models, this paper prompts a new Internet worm propagation model derived from the idea of Grey Theory, which reguires less historic data and does not consider the distribution patter of these data. Finally, the simulation results confirm our analvsis results.