东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅱ)--逐步回归预测方法

Study on Forecasting Methods of Corn Heat Index in Northeastern China(Ⅱ)——Stepwise Regression Model

利用1960-2005年74类大气环流资料,从玉米播种期的5月开始到8月,逐月滚动建立了东北3省典型站玉米热量指数的逐步回归模型。各月模型都能较好地预测该区玉米生长季内的热量状况。检验结果表明,通过运用滚动预报的方法,可以有效地提高预测玉米生长季内热量指数的准确率。

Using the 74 types of atmospheric circulation characteristics（ACC）,monthly stepwise regression models of corn heat indexes from May,the sowing month,to August for 3 typical stations in 3 provinces of Northeastern China are developed.By the models,corn heat status in the growing season in each region can be fairly forecasted.The test results show that the accuracy of corn heat index forecast can be improved effectively by the method of monthly rolling forecast.