新疆可持续协调发展水平趋势预测与评价

Trend prediction and evaluation of sustainable harmony development of Xinjiang

对新疆可持续协调发展水平的变化趋势进行预测,可为区域可持续发展预警和调控区域可持续发展状态奠定基础,提供依据。从新疆整体层面上研究新疆可持续发展水平的未来变化趋势,采用多种预测模型,对各指标2005-2020年的未来变化进行预测,然后采用组合评价法进行新疆可持续发展水平评价,得出2005-2020年新疆可持续发展水平指数,并进行协调性分析,结果表明:(1)未来新疆经济可持续发展水平、社会可持续发展水平、可持续发展能力三要素指数基本保持同步增长的趋势,而生态环境可持续发展水平指数与之趋势相反,但随着可持续发展战略实施的深入,生态环境可持续发展水平将会逐渐回升,也就是说,大致会呈现平缓的"U"曲线;(2)与20世纪末相比,虽然在2005-2020年间,系统协调指数略有下降,但新疆可持续发展水平却有明显的上升,说明可持续发展总系统是由经济、社会、生态环境和可持续发展能力四要素共同作用的结果;(3)未来在继续提高经济、社会、可持续发展能力三要素水平的同时,要把提高生态环境可持续发展水平作为重点;(4)新疆是一个多民族聚居的省区,也是一个生态环境比较脆弱的省区,实现可持续发展对保证我国资源安全和生态安全,维护边疆稳定和安宁具有十分重要的政治、经济和社会意义。发展循环经济是实现可持续发展的根本途径。

Implementing sustainable developmental strategy is the inevitable choice of regional development in Xinjiang. Forecasting the trend of changes of the level of sustainable development in Xinjiang can lay the foundation and provide a basis for the early-warning of regional sustainable development. This article predicts the changes of indicators from 2005 to 2020, and then uses a combination of evaluation method to evaluate the level of sustainable development in Xinjiang, and analyses the dynamic change of the coordination. The results show that： （1） the future level of sustainable economic development in Xinjiang, sustainable social development, sustainable development capacity possesses the synchronized growth trend, and the ecological environment for sustainable development level shows the opposite trend. With implementation of the sustainable developmental strategy in-depth, people＇s enhanced awareness of environmental protection, sustainable development level of the ecological environment will gradually rise, the trend will show more or less gentle ＂U＂ curve ; （2） compared with the end of the 20th century, although in the years 2005 - 2020, coordination index will slightly decline, but the level of sustainable development in Xinjiang will obviously increase; （3） in future, apart from continuing to improve the economic, social and sustainable development capacity of this three elements level, the whole society should strive to improve the ecological sustainable development level as a key. Only in this way, level of sustainable development in Xinjiang can continu- ously improve; （4） Xinjiang is a multi-ethnic region, also a region with fragile ecological environment. Achieving sustainable development in Xinjiang can ensure China＇s resources safety and ecological security and maintain stability and peace in the border areas, which has great political, economic and social significance. Developing recycling economy is a fundamental way to achieve sustainable development.