辽西北建平降水特征及干旱对农业的影响评价

Evaluation on the Effects of Precipitation Characteristics in the Areas of Jianping and Northwestern Liaoning to Agriculture

[目的]针对辽西北建平农作物产量低而不稳的问题,分析评价辽西北建平降水特征及干旱对农业影响程度,为减少或避免旱灾造成的农业经济损失提供理论依据。[方法]采用辽西北建平1954～2007年地面气象观测资料及农作物生育期、产量资料,2003～2006年自然降水与农作物需水量试验资料。运用变率、保证率、经验公式法统计分析气候对农业的影响程度。[结果]辽西北建平农作物生长季降水相对变率为47%;降水量80%保证率为318.5mm;自然降水量与农作物需水量比较,玉米、大豆生长季欠缺33～36mm,高粱、谷子生长季多15～41mm。[结论]辽西北建平降水相对变率大,干旱发生频率高,干旱是制约建平农业经济发展的主要气象灾害,应种植耐旱产值高的谷子、高粱等杂粮作物防御旱灾。

[ Objective ] Aiming at the problem of low and unsteady crop yield in Jianping County, the effects of local precipitation characteristics in Jianping and northwestern Liaoning to agriculture were analyzed and evaluated , thus providing a theory basis for reducing and avoiding the agricultural economic losses caused by drought. [ Method ] Surface meteorological observation data, the crop growing period and output data from 1954 to 2007 and natural precipitation and crops water requirements test data from 2003 to 2006 were adopted.. Effect degree of climate to agriculture was statistic analyzed by empirical formula method. [ Result ] In Jianping area of northwestern Liaoning, during crops grow- ing period, the relative precipitation variability was 47% ; precipitation amount 80% with guarantee rate 318.5 ram; As a comparison between natural precipitation amount and crops requiring water amount, the forn!Ler was deficient by 33 - 36 mm for maize and soybean in growth, and it was surplus by 15 -41 mm for Chinese sorghum and millet in growth. [ Conclusion] In Jianping and other areas of northwestern Liaoning, the precipitation variability and drought occurrence frequency were relatively high, arid was the main meteorological disaster which restricted the development of agricultural economy. To defense drought, some drought-resistant and high-yielding crops such as millet and Chinese sorghum should be widely cultivated.