甘肃省天水市耕地面积时序变化分析

Analysis on Temporal Variation Tendency of Cultivated Land Area in Tianshui City Gansu Province

为了更深入了解经济发展与耕地面积变化之间的关系,选择天水市1949～2007年的耕地面积及人口资料,同时根据要求选用部分数据运用SPSS主成分分析法定量分析该市耕地面积变化的驱动机制。结果表明,影响该市耕地变化的主要因素是经济发展、人口增长和相关政策。并通过Excel软件的矩阵运算实现了该市耕地面积的灰色模糊预测。结果显示,天水市耕地面积在未来10年依然逐渐减少,随着社会经济发展对土地面积需求的增多,耕地形势不容乐观。最后,提出天水市耕地可持续发展的对策措施。

In order to know the relationship between economic development and cultivated land variation deeply,the driving force of the change was analyzed by selecting data related to cultivated land area and population in Tianshui City from 1949 to 2007 and using SPSS principle components analysis. The results showed that the main factors influencing the area change are economic development, population growth and policies. With excel software as a plafform,a gray fuzzy forecast was done for the cultivated land. The prediction result showed that the area of cultivated land in Tianshui City still takes on the characteristic of a gradually decreasing trend in next 10 years. However,with the increasing land demand for meeting the need of socio-economic development,the situation is not optimistic. Finally,the article advanced some advices for the sustainable use of the cultivated land in Tianshui city.