农民工返乡的经济学分析——以托达罗模型为视角

An Economic Analysis of Return Migration of Peasant Workers

本文以托达罗人口迁移模型作为主要分析手段,针对当前农民工大规模返乡现象进行分析。得出,城乡预期收入差距影响劳动力供给,城市实际工资和政策参数影响劳动力需求,金融危机作为外生变量影响劳动力供求平衡。最后,借鉴托达罗人口迁移模型提出了相应的政策思路。

In this paper, we use Todaro migration model as the main tool to analyse current phenomenon of large--scale migrant workers returning home. This paper considers that expected income gap between rural and urban areas influences the supply of labor force l the demand for labor is affected by urban real wages and the policy parameters; the financial crisis being an exogenous variable affects the labor supply--demand balance. Finally we advance relevant policies according to Todaro migration model.