石油消费及其影响因素:基于非参数模型的研究

Petroleum Consumption and Its Impact Factors:Based on Nonparametric Model

本文通过建立半参数模型和非参数模型来考察石油消费系统中各线性和非线性影响因素因素的影响效应,结果表明,我国近年来的石油消费急剧增加主要是由于经济的快速增长和工业化进程加快以及汽车拥有量的急速增加所引致,石油价格的上升并不足以抵消经济快速增长等因素引致的石油消费的增加,我国的能源利用效率还处于一个较低的水平。

This paper estimates the linear and nonlinear effect of the factors which influence petroleum consumption based on the semiparametric and nonparametric model. We find that the economic growth, industrialization and vehicle stock are the important factors impact on the petroleum consumption. The impact of the petroleum price index is fewer than the above factors on the petroleum consumption. Furthermore, we show that the utilized efficiency of electricity in China is still stay at low level.