能源消费与经济增长因果关系研究——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

Research on the Granger Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China

运用面板单位根检验、异质面板协整检验和面板因果检验方法,检验中国30个省市区1986—2006年能源消费与经济增长的因果关系,结论表明:(1)从长期来看,东部沿海和西部地区存在能源消费与经济增长的双向因果关系,中部和东北地区存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系;(2)从短期来看,东部沿海和西部地区存在能源消费与经济增长的双向因果关系,中部地区存在从经济增长到能源消费的单向因果关系,东北地区存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。该结论为制定合理的能源消费长期战略与短期政策提供了科学依据。

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel co-integration and panel causality test to survey the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The empirical results show that there is long-term hi-directional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in east and west of China, while there is just long-term unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth in central and north-east area. Moreover, there is short-term bi- directional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in east and west area, while there is just short-term unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth in north-east area, but the central area is on the contrary. These results provide a scientific basis for long-term strategy and short-term policy of energy consumption.