民爆安全事故致因突变模型

Accident Causing Catastrophe Model of Civil Explosion

本文统计分析了近年来我国民爆物品安全事故,重点分析了工业雷管和乳化炸药生产安全事故致因,根据统计结果,结合事故案例,实证了事故因果连锁模型的科学性和适用性,在此基础上引入突变理论,尝试构建了以人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态为控制参数、系统安全状态为状态参数的民爆安全事故致因尖点突变模型。模型研究与事故统计结果相一致。

The statistical analysis of combustion explosion accidents of civil explosives happened in recent years is conducted in this paper, which focuses on analyzing the combustion explosion accidents causing in production Of detonators and emulsion explosives. According to the results of statistics, combined with the accident cases, the scientificity and applicability of accident causal chain model has been demonstrated. Basing on it, the catastrophe theory is introduced to try to build a safety incidents causing cusp catastrophe model of civil explosive, which takes the unsafe behavior of person and unsafe condition of object as the controlling parameters and the system security status as the state parameters. The conclusions of model studying are coincidence with the statistical results.