基于优选组合预测模型的中长期负荷预测

Optimal Combination Fcrecasting Mcdel Based on Long-term Load Forecasting

电力系统负荷预测是电力市场的基础,准确的负荷预测有利于提高电网运行的安全稳定性,从而提高电力系统的经济效益和社会效益。文章介绍了用于中长期负荷预测的灰色理论模型以及灰色等维新息模型、弹性系数法与非线性回归中的指数预测模型,提出了电力系统中长期负荷预测的实用新方法——优选组合预测模型。结果表明,优选组合预测模型对于电力系统中长期负荷预测这样复杂的问题,具有预测精度高,简捷实用等优点,该方法可以作为中长期负荷预测的工具之一。

Power system load forecasting is the foundation of power market, accurate load forecasting is favor to boost safety and stability of power line operation, and increase the economic performance and social benefits of power system. The article introduced grey theory model, grey new information and equal dimensional model, flexible coefficient method and exponential forecasting model in non - liner regression, and introduced a new method - optimization combination forecasting model to forecast medium - long term power load. The calculation results showed that for this type of complex problems such as medium -long term load forecasting, the optimization combination forecasting model is specially useful because of its high precision and facility, the method can be used as one of the tools of forecasting the medium - long term power load.