投资成本和市场需求不对称的房地产投资决策期权博弈模型

An Asymmetric Duopoly Option Game Model of Real Estate Investment Decision under Investment Cost and Market Demand

引入投资成本和市场需求变量,建立了房地产不对称双头期权博弈模型。并进行均衡策略分析,得出当两开发商的投资成本和市场需求之比差异不显著时,存在序贯、抢先和同时投资均衡;当两开发商的投资成本和市场需求之比差异显著时,存在序贯和同时投资均衡;当两开发商的投资成本和市场需求之比相等时,存在抢先和同时投资均衡。市场需求与项目价值成正比,与投资阈值成反比,投资成本对项目价值影响较小,与投资阈值成正比例变化。

Investment cost and market demand are introduced to set up an asymmetric duopoly option game model of real estate investment decision. Then three equilibriums such as preemptive, sequential and simultaneous equilibrium are discussed, and the results indicate that investment cost and market demand have an important impact on developer＇s investment strategies. To every developer, whether or not to be leader and when to invest depend on its comparative advantage and disadvantage between investment cost and market demand. When the comparative advantage is not significant, three equilibriums such as preemptive, sequential and simultaneous equilibrium exist; when the comparative advantage is significant, two equilibriums such as sequential and simultaneous equilibrium ex- ist; When the comparative advantage is equal, two equilibriums such as preemptive and simultaneous equilibrium exist. The investment strategy analysis showed that compared with investment cost, market demand has a greater impact on the investment value, at the same time, the two factors have a great influence on the investment threshold.