中国经济持续增长的根源探究

Empirical Study on China's Economic Sustained Growth

本文运用Barro回归模型对改革开放以来中国经济持续增长三十年进行实证分析发现,在中国经济持续增长中,工业化、城镇化、市场化和消费升级等反映经济制度和经济结构演变的部分持续效应较强,在持续增长前期占总贡献的40%,到后期占80%;物质资本、人力资本、劳动力和科技等投入要素部分持续效应较弱,前期占总贡献的60%,后期只占20%;物质资本、人力资本、劳动力持续作用呈现倒U型曲线。研究同时发现,后发优势的作用是显著的,但呈现L型曲线。

In this paper, we study China＇s economic sustained growth since reform and opening up by means of a Barro regression model. And find that economic system and structure of the evolution, which includes industrialization and urbanization, marketing and consumer promotions, has strong effects on sustained growth, where has the total eontributian of 40% in the early and in the latter for 80%. Input elements, which includes capital goods human capital, labor force, science and technology has the weak effects, where has the total contribution of 60% in the early and only 20% in the latter. The rule of the capital goods, human capital and labor force has continued down U-curve to sustained growth. At the same time, the follow advantage for China＇s economic sustained growth is significant with L-curve.