水文频率计算的误差分析及安全性研究

An Error Analysis of Hydrological Frequency Calculation and Security Research

在水文频率计算中由于误差的存在,使得估计值与实际值之间存在偏差,这种偏差导致在水利工程设计中产生了不安全因素。就此提出了安全保证率的概念,并运用统计试验的方法,对用矩法估计水文计算参数时的安全性进行了研究,并对设计值服从的P-Ⅲ型分布各主要参数对安全性的影响进行了研究,为提高水文频率计算的安全性指出了研究方向,提供了检验手段。

Due to errors of hydrological frequency calculation , the deviation between the estimated value and actual value causes the design of water conservancy projects to be insecure. This paper puts forward the concept of security guarantees and adopts the statis- tical test method and estimates hydrological moment when the security parameters of a research and design values subordinate to the P-Ⅲ-type distribution of the main parameters on the safety of the impact of the study to enhance the security of hydrological frequency calculation of the direction. The study provides a means of testing.