基于最大熵法的河道行洪风险评估

Assessment of Riverway Flood Risk Based on the Maximum Entropy Method

通过随机模拟的方法将不确定因素引入河道水面线的推求过程,来定量描述河道水面线的不确定性。在此基础上,建立了基于最大熵原理(准则)的河道行洪风险评估模型,此方法可以得到水面线的最大熵密度函数具体表达式,再进行风险率的计算,并用实例验证了该模型的可行性和实用性,从而为河道行洪风险评估提供了一条简便可行的途径。

Through stochastic simulation methods, this paper introduces some uncertain factors to the calculation process of water surface line of riverway, whose uncertainty is described quantitatively, and an evaluation model of riverway flood risk rate based on the maximum entropy principle is established. Then a specific expression of the maximum entropy density function of the water surface profile is obtained, and an assessment of risk rates is carried out. Moreover, a practical example is provided to testify the feasibility and practicality of the model. A convenient and feasible approach to assessing flood risk rates is offered accordingly.