舰船动力系统研制风险分析与评估研究

The risk analysis and assessment of marine power system's development

随着新研设备、新技术采用的比例不断增大,舰船动力系统研制的复杂性显著提高,所涉及的不确定因素也日益增多。因此,其所面临的风险以及风险所导致的损失规模也越来越大。为了促进风险管理方法和手段在舰船动力系统研制中的应用,本文进行了风险分析和风险评估研究。在归纳和总结现代项目管理理论和方法的基础上,分析了国内外武器研制中的风险管理方法和技术,探讨了舰船动力系统研制阶段的风险因素和各风险之间的相关关系,给出了不同风险因素定量分析和评估的一般方法,并通过实例,对某船动力系统方案进行了风险分析和评估应用研究。

With the increase of the ratio of the new developed equipments and new adopted technogies,the complexity of marine power system＇s development is also dramatically increased and the uncertain factors in project management become more and more. To promote using risk management methods in the development of marine power system, the risk analysis and risk assessment are researched and studied in this papaer. Based on summary of theories and approaches of modern project management,the advanced methods and technologies are given based on the domestic and foreign risk management of weaponary development. Basic risk factors and the relation are approached, and the method of risk quantitative analysis for different risk factors is provided. As examples, risk analysis and risk assessment in power system of a ship is researched and analyzed. This method of risk analysis and assessment is proved feasible.