继电保护系统失效概率算法

An Algorithm for Relay Protection System Failure Probability

计算继电保护系统的失效概率和量化其对一次元件实时停运的影响是电网运行可靠性评估的重要研究内容。所提出的继电保护系统可靠性模型能够反映其保护原理、配置情况和配合关系。一方面,保护硬件故障引起的失效被称为一类失效,利用统计数据可计算其概率;另一方面,如果继电保护系统的设置不适应目前电网运行状态,将产生隐蔽性故障,被称为二类失效。因此,提出保护功能模块的不动作概率用来反映一次系统故障类型和保护原理的影响,并基于不动作概率计算二类失效概率。最后,考虑继电保护系统失效的影响,推导出一次系统元件停运概率的计算式。

It is an important research content of operational reliability evaluation for the power system to calculate the failure probability of the relay protection system and quantify its impact on the outage of the primary component. A reliability model for the relay protection system is proposed to represent its principle, configuration and cooperation with other models. On the one hand, the so-called first-type failure is due to hardware failure, and its probability is calculated according to statistics. On the other, the hidden failure called the second-type failure will occur should the setting of the relay protection system not suit the power system operation. For this reason, the inactivity probability of the protection module is proposed to represent the effect of the power system fault type and protection principle, through which the second-type failure probability is calculated. Finally, the outage probability formulae of the primary component are derived with the relay protection system failure taken into account.