港口航道水域操船环境危险度的综合评价

Evaluation and analysis on danger degree of port shipoperating environment by Grey System Theory

在确定操船环境危险度的评价方法、评价指标及各评价指标的危险度评价标准的基础上，采用灰色系统理论中的灰色聚类和灰色统计评估的方法，对港口各航道操船环境的危险程度、整个港口航道水域操船环境的总体危险程度以及操船环境各项评价指标对航道内船舶航行安全的影响程度进行了定量的分析和评价．通过该评价，可以了解和掌握航道水域操船环境的危险程度及各评价指标对船舶航行安全影响程度．

Based on relating conclusion and ship operating simulation result and expert consultation inside and outside my country, this paper set evaluation level of danger degree for every evaluation target, apply Grey System Theory to evaluate danger degree of every channel, then evaluate the danger degree of whole harbor ship operating environment, analyze ship operating environment factor which affect navigation safety in channel. Through the evaluation, we can find out the danger degree of ship operating environment in the water area and the affection degree of every evaluation factor for shipoperating safety, offer theoretics bases for developping the shipping environment and confirming the adnager degree of the water area.