基于环境变化的江河源区人口重心转移研究——以果洛州为例

The population gravity center shift route based on environmental change in the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers a case of Guoluo State

基于冰冻圈背景,从人口重心变迁的角度入手,运用空间均值地图演示的方法,以黄河源果洛州近56年以来"区域人口重心"的转移问题为例,探讨江河源区人口重心变迁与生态环境因素之间的关系,得出以下结论:(1)果洛州人口重心有先向东北后向东南移动的趋势.(2)1952年～2007年间果洛州人口重心迁移大体呈"ε"字型态势变化:1952年～1969年间,轨迹由西向东移动,1969年～2007年间由南向北变化.总体上有向东北方向移动的趋势.(3)气候变化通过气温和降水影响牧草的生产力;冻土层通过对土层水分的调节影响牧草的生产力;NPP反映草地生态系统的生产力,而江河源区以草地生态系统为主体,草场植被生产力影响载畜量,进而影响到牧民的流动.

The source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are extremely important parts of cryophere in China. Its population spatial distribution is not only related with the social economy factors also has the important relations with the ecological environ- ment. This article based on permafrost environment, began with the population gravity center, a statistic in geo-statistics,spatial mean,was used as a means of spatial equality measurement, since by Yellow River source Guoluo near 56 years ＂region population gravity center＂ as an example, discussed the relationship between the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers population gravity center and the ecological environment factors. The results showed： （1） As a whole,it has a trend to move to the northeast. （2） Between 1952 - 2007, the tendency chart of center of gravity of population in Guoluo State changes as the font of ＂ε＂on the whole： between 1952-1969, the track moves from west to east, between 1969-2007, the center of gravity of population changes from south to north. （3） Through the temperature and precipitation, climate change affects productivity of pasture; through regulating soil moisture, the permafrost impacts on the productivity of pasture; NPP reflects the productivity of grassland ecosystems, while grassland ecosystem is the main part of the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. it impacts on stocking rate, then affects herdsman＇s flow.