中国制造业空间集聚水平及其演变趋势

The spatial agglomeration level of manufacturing in China and its changing tendency

采用Ellison和Glaeser设计的产业内集聚水平系数对1986-2006年中国制造业两位数20个分行业的集聚水平进行动态测算,并分别从制造业整体、分行业及其地域分布三个层面对计算结果统计,分析演变趋势。研究结论更进一步表明:中国制造业整体集聚水平呈显著的U型变化趋势,且正处于中度向高度集聚水平迈进阶段;集聚的主导行业已由资源密集型行业向技术密集型行业转变;在地域分布上,东部与中西部地区集聚行业亦有明显差异,技术密集型行业有向东部地区而资源密集型行业则向中西部地区集聚的趋势。

This paper applies an index of industry concentration designed by Ellison and Glaeser for dynamically evaluating the concen- tration of China＇ s 20 two -digit manufacturing industry from 1986 to 2006, then makes statistics of the calculated results respectively from the whole industry, two - digit industries and its regional distributions, and finally analyzes its changing tendency. The conclusions show further that the whole industry appears to be a significant U - curve, and is striding forward from an intermediate to high agglomeration level. Besides, the leading industry of concentration has changed from resource - intensive subindustres to technology - intensive subindustries. As for the geographical distribution, there are also distinct differences between the eastern region and other regions. The technology - intensive subindustries are concentrating in the eastern region, while the resource - intensive subindustries are in the central and western regions.