1987年来台海关系变化对台湾入境大陆客流量的影响

The Impact of Cross-Strait Relation Changes on the Inbound Tourists of China's Mainland from Taiwan in the Past 20 Years

两个国家(或地区)之间的政治关系是影响出入境旅游最重要的因素。1987年台湾当局解除居民来大陆探亲旅游限制,入境大陆旅游客流量急速增长;2008年开放大陆居民入岛旅游,拉开了两岸旅游流双向互动的新格局。1987-2007年的20年间,台海关系波动起伏。依据相关历史文献和统计数据,分析了两岸关系变化对台湾入境大陆旅游客流量的影响。结果发现,当台海关系恶化、危机事件爆发时,在入境客流量统计值、环比增长率和占出岛旅游比统计曲线上形成了明显的"凹形谷",采用三条理想曲线作为参照系,定量分析了7次危机事件对台湾游客入境大陆客流量的影响。其中,从1994年的千岛湖事件到1996年第四次台海危机,台海关系阴云密布,对入境大陆旅游影响最大、持续时间最长,累计损失客流量50万人次,相对损失率在11.4%。本研究为探索国际关系危机事件对出入境旅游的影响提供典型案例。

Cross-strait relations have been unsteady with ups and downs in the past 20 years.The number of Mainland inbound tourists from Taiwan has increased rapidly since the restrictions on travel was removed in 1987.Based on the relevant data from 1987 to 2007, this paper analyzes the impact of cross-strait relations changes and crisis events on the number of Mainland inbound tourists from Taiwan.After a comparative study of the relevant statistics, it can be seen that a reduction appeared during a crisis event.Taking three ideal curves for the frame of reference, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of seven crisis events, among which, ＂Qiandao Lake＂ crisis in 1994 and the fourth cross-strait crisis from 1995 to 1996 had a great influence on the tourism development, with the accumulative loss of tourists being about 500,000, and relative loss rate being 11.4%.This research offers a case study for exploring the impact of international relations and crisis events on inbound and outbound tourism.