妇幼卫生信息系统中漏报率的估计方法

METHODS FOR ESTIMATING UNDERREPORTING RATE IN THE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS OF MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH

漏报是影响妇幼卫生信息系统质量的一个重要原因。本文介绍了一种简单易行的统计方法—捕获—再捕获法，可用于估计妇幼卫生信息系统漏报率的估计，使得到的死亡率（或发生率）数据更接近实际情况。该法有两种模型：两样本模型和对数线性模型，其中以两样本模型最为简单，易于理解。妇幼卫生年报和妇幼卫生监测系统构成了此法的两个系统。本文亦介绍了该法的使用步骤。

Underreporting is one of the important problems in fluencing on the quality of the information management systems of maternal and child health(IMSMCH). This paper introduced a simple and practicable statistical method, capturerecapture method, which could be used to estimate the underreporting rate in the IMSMCH, and then make the reporting mortality rates(or prevalence rates)be near to the real values. The method had two models, two-list model and, log-linear model, and the first one is more simple and understandable. The maternal and chile health annual report system and monitoring system meet the requirement of the model. Also, operation stePS were offered in the paper.