大庆油田资源量增长趋势及其主控因素解析

A study of the incremental trend of the reserves in Daqing Oilfield and its controlling factors

大庆油田作为国内最大的石油生产基地,其原油总产量可占全国同期陆上的40%以上,开发形势也直接影响到全国原油产量的供给。近年来,大庆油田的产量递减以及国内能源供应短缺的原因,油气资源量的新增速度越来越多地受到人们关注。文章就是基于这样的形势,在收集了大庆油田大量原始数据的基础上,结合大庆油田的自身特点,选用储量增长预测方法对大庆油田新增可采储量进行了预测,结果表明,大庆油田的新增资源量总体呈下降趋势,最终可采储量发生的时间为2028年。文中还从国际和国内两个方面分析了新增油气资源量变化趋势的主控因素,认为国际原油价格的波动和国内政策导向及技术进步是影响大庆油田新增油气资源量的主要原因。

Daqing Oilfield,as the biggest petroleum production base in China,its total production of crude oil accounts for over 40% of the total production of the mainland in the same period,and its development situation directly influences the supply of the national crude oil.In recent years,because the production of Daqing Oilfield gradually decreases and the domestic energy supply falls short,the increasing speed of oil and gas resources quantity draws the attention of the public.According to the situation and based on the collection of great quantities of original data in Daqing Oilfield and in combination with the characteristics of Daqing Oilfield,this article adopts the prediction method for the growth of reserves to make an estimate of the new recoverable reserves in Daqing Oilfield.The result shows that the new added resource quantity in Daqing Oilfield presents a downward trend,and the time of finally recoverable reserves will be 2028.The article also analyzes the main controlling factors in the changing of new added oil and gas resources from international and domestic respects,and draws a conclusion that the fluctuation of international crude oil price and the domestic policy guidelines and technology progress are the main causes that influence the new added oil and gas resources in Daqing Oilfield.