微观因素的变动对粮食生产波动影响的实证分析

The Summary and Evaluation on the Research of Agricultural Contract Theory

本文从分析微观主体的农户行为入手,利用C-D函数对历年来中国的粮食生产的波动进行分析。研究表明农产品价格的变化会带来农作物经营结构的调整及产量的波动,化肥投入量的增加对粮食单产有明显的正向影响,可比劳动价格的变化对单位面积劳动投入量影响不显著,20世纪80年代以来技术进步对粮食单产的增加影响不明显,自然灾害的负面影响通过农户对非受灾农作物的集约经营得到部分抵补。文章最后指出改善微观基础才是提高宏观有效供给能力的关键,并从农作物价格、投入要素价格、技术进步和改善农业基础设施等方面提出了促进宏观层面粮食增长的潜力。

Beginning from rural household behavior as micro-body, this article analyzes the fluctuation of China＇s grain production in recent years based on C -D function. The study illustrates that the price change of farm product could result into the adjustment of crops management structure as well as output fluctuation, and the increase of fertilizer input positively influences grain yield per unit, however, our study also indicates indistinctive effect of fluctuation of comparable labor price over labor input per unit area together with unremarkable influence of technological progress on the increase of grain yield per unit since 1980s, and the negative effect of natural calamity over farmers can partly be compensated by intensive farming of grain in non disasterhit areas. At last we point out the key to strengthen up effective macro supply capability is to perfect micro basis such as price of crops and inputs, technological progress as well as agricultural infrastructure.