剧场电影成功的实际预测模型:以电影的体验商品特性为重点

Devising a Pratical Model for Predicting Theatrical Movie Success:Focusing on the Experience Good Property

本文采用了体验经济的理论框架,对影响电影票房的因素进行分类,并发展了新的研究变量,因变量有总票房、第一周票房和放映时间长度,自变量有四类:品牌相关变量、客观特征、信息源头、发行相关因素。续集、演员、成本、类型(剧情),MPAA分级(PG和R),发行档期(暑期和复活节),第一周上映影片的荧幕数与总票房都显著相关。

This study attempts to devise a new theoretical framework to classify and develop predictors of box office performance for theatrical movies. Three dependent variables including total box office, first -week box office, and length of run were adopted. Four categories of independent variables were employed： brand - related variables, objective features, information sources, and distribution - related variables. Sequel, actor, budget, genre （drama）, Motion Picture Association of America rating （PG and R）, release periods （Summer and Easter）, and number of first - week screens were significantly related to total box office performance.