长江流域棉花品种产量与纤维品质发展趋势预测的研究

PREDICTION STUDY ON THE DEVELOPING TREND OF YIELD AND QUALITY OF COTTON VARIETIES IN THE YANGTZE RIVER VALLEY

灰色动态模型是灰色系统理论中用于预测的主要方法。本文以长江流域棉花品种区域试验参试品种的皮棉产量、成纱品质指标,以及产量组分,纤维物理性能资料,建立 GM(1,1)动态模型,对长江流域棉花新品种产量与纤维品质的发展趋势进行研究。结果表明,皮棉产量与成纱品质均呈上升趋势,90年代末期可分别达到105.90公斤与3078分。然而,产量组分与各项纤维物理指标的发展趋势并不一致。单株铃数、衣分、主体长度、细度与成熟度为上升趋势,可分别达到22.79铃/株、40.39%,30.24毫米、5933米/克与1.97;铃重,单纤维强力与断裂长度为下降趋势,预测分别为5.03克/铃、3.63克与20.17千米。

The gery dynamic model is the major method in grey thoery system for prediction.A dynamic model GM(1,1) has been developed on the data basis of the yield,yarn quality index,yield components,physical fiber quality of the varieties that joined the Yangtze River Valley Rigional Variety Test to predict and study the developing trend of yield and fiber quality of the new varieties.Results showed that there is an increasing trend of yield and yarn quality that will reach 105.90kg and 3078 marks, respectively in the late 90's.However,the developing trend of yield components differs with each physical fiber index.An increasing trend occurred for bolls/plant, lint percentage,model length,fiber fineness and fiber maturity that will reach 22.79 boll/plant,40.39%,30.24mm,5933m/g and 1.97.A decreasing trend occurred for boll ewight,single fiber strength and breaking length that will be 5.03g/boll,3.63g and 20.17km.