FORECAST模型的原理、方法和应用

Principle,method and application of FORECAST model

数学模型是一个重要的工具,可以很好地帮助科学家和政府决策人员进行规划和预测。最近几十年来,数学模型、经验模型和基于过程的计算机模型的大量涌现,为现代生态学的发展做出了巨大的贡献。其中森林生态系统过程模型就是一类非常重要的林业模型。FORECAST模型,是一个基于森林生态系统过程的林分水平模型。它可以模拟多种管理策略对森林的影响,而且能够预测森林生态系统结构和功能的未来发展趋势,帮助我们制定合适的管理策略,为森林生态系统的优化管理服务。主要从FORECAST模型的发展概况、原理、方法和实际应用,并针对目前该模型的优势和局限性进行了简介。

Mathematical model is an important tool to help scientists and good government policy makers with planning and forecasting. In recent decades, large number of mathematical models, experience models and models based on the process have emerged, and made tremendous contributions to the development of modern ecology. Model of forest ecosystem processes is a very important forestry model. FORECAST is a model based on the process of forest ecosystems stand level. It can simulate a variety of effects that management strategies impose on forests, predict the development trend of the structure and function of the forest ecosystem and help us formulate appropriate management strategies for forest ecosystems optimizing manage ment services. This article makes a simple introduction to the development of FORECAST model, principles, methods and practical applications, and its strengths and limitations.