中国南部区域植被与气候关系初探

The Relationship between the Vegetation and Climate of the Transect in South China

以全球变暖为背景,以中国南部区域18.00°—27.50°N、108.50°—112.50°E样带为研究对象,以纬度为梯度,应用CRU(Climate Research Unit)全球观测数据集和CO2浓度倍增后的2050年模拟气候状况作为平衡态陆地生物圈模型BIOME4的气候驱动,对中国南部样带历史100 a和未来50 a间的潜在植被变化进行模拟和统计分析。结果表明,随时间推移与全球变暖加剧,植被类型变化呈加剧趋势;温度作为植被变化的主要因素导致热带与温带植被的交错带成为气候变化的敏感地带。历史气候条件下,北回归线以北边缘地带的24.5°N的植被变化率最大,其次为以南边缘地带的22.5°N。在CO2浓度倍增导致温度、降雨量、最低温都显著增加后,研究区域植被变化率最大地带由北回归线边缘带北移到25.5°N。

In the background of global warming,applying an equilibrium vegetation model（BIOME4） driven by CRU global dataset and the climate data in the year 2050 with double increase of CO2 concentration,this paper had simulated and analyzed the changes of potential vegetation distribution during past 100 years and in the future 50 years in the South China transect.The results showed that as time went by and with the intension of global warming,the transformation rate of vegetation types displayed a speeding up trend,and tropical and temperate vegetation ecotone was a sensitive area of climate change.Under the historical climate conditions,vegetation in north of the tropic of fringe of 24.5°N rate changed the most,followed by the south edge of the 22.5°N.Doubling CO2 concentration resulted in the temperature,rainfall,the most significant increase in both low-temperature,the rate of change on the region＇s largest zone of vegetation moved to the brink of 25.5°N from the tropic.