中国国际资本流入的贸易增长效应分析

Analysis about the trade growth effect of the international capital flowing in China

以汇率和经济增长作为国际短期资本影响国际贸易的中间变量,采用Eviews6.0,从总体上考察国际资本流入对我国进出口的影响。从模型得出,随着FDI的增加,我国的出口额会增加,进口额会减少,而短期内FDI的增加对我国的进出口都起着促进作用;人民币实际有效汇率的贬值无论在长期和短期都对出口起着促进作用,对进口起着抑制作用。因此,在国际资本大量流入的情况下,只有积极吸引FDI,有效防范短期资本大幅度波动,才能保持贸易收支的相对稳定。

Increase the international short-term capital of conduct and actions to affect the middle of the international trade to change the quantity with the rate of exchange and economy, the adoption Eviews6.0, from total up investigate the international capital afflux to the our country the influence of the import and export.Get from the model, along with the FDI increment, the exit sum that sees the our country will increase, import the sum and will reduce, but the FDI increment inside the short date rises to promote the function to the import and exports of the our country;Renminbi is actual valid the depreciation of the rate of exchange regardless at all repress the function towards importing and rising wear towards exporting and rise to promote the function, with short dates over a long period of time.Therefore, under the condition of a great deal of afflux of international capital, only draw on the FDI actively, guard against the significant motion of short-term capital effectively, then can keep opposite stability of trade the receipt and expenditure.