中国对外直接投资与服务贸易关系实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Chinese Foreign Direct Investment and Service Trade

从实际出发,中国对外直接投资和服务贸易可能存在替代或互补关系。实证分析发现,现阶段,中国对外直接投资和服务贸易的特点决定两者之间的关系是替代的,这不仅表现为中国对外直接投资与中国服务贸易出口是替代关系,而且也表现为中国对外直接投资与中国服务贸易进口是替代关系。这种替代关系是不显著的,这与两者之间规模相差过大直接相关。中国对外直接投资相当部分投资于商务服务,而且与货物贸易的区域分布高度相关,这决定了中国相当部分的对外直接投资是市场导向型。同时,随着中国第三产业竞争力的改善,服务贸易对外直接投资将会增加。中国对外直接投资和服务贸易可能会互补。

From a practical viewpoint, there may be a relationship of sustitute or complement between Chinese FDI and service trade. The empirical analysis finds that at the present stage, the properties of Chinese FDI and service trade determine the substitute relationship. The relationship reflects not only the substitute relationship between Chinese FDI and Service Trade export but also Chinese FDI and Service Trade import. And this relationship is not significant, as it is directly related to the scales of FDI and service trade. Chinese FDI considerably is concentrated on commerce service, and is highly related to the space distribution of commodity trade. So, Chinese FDI is considerably market-oriented. Meanwhile, with the improvement of Chinese third industry, Chinese FDI of service trade will increase. Therefore, Chinese FDI and service trade will complement each other.