甘肃葫芦河流域径流变化的SWAT模型模拟

SWAT model simulation of runoff variation of Hulu River basin in Gansu Province

利用SWAT模型模拟研究了甘肃葫芦河流域过去9年的径流变化.结果表明:20世纪80-90年代流域径流减少的主要原因是气候变化.在此基础上,根据未来不同气候情景的变化趋势,模拟了葫芦河1985年的径流变化.得出气温影响相对较小,降水变化对葫芦河流域径流量的影响较大,径流量随降水的增加而增大,随气温的升高而减小.在气温降低配合降水增加的情况下,径流响应最剧烈,且呈明显增加趋势;相反,气温升高且降水减少不利于径流的产生,减少了实测值的61%.

Variation of runoff of Hulu River basin in Gansu Province in the last nine years was simulated by using the distributed hydrological model SWAT and the result shows that climate variation is the main cause for runoff decrease in the river basin from the 1980s to the 1990s. Then, the runoff variation of the Hulu River in 1985 was simulated according to the variation trend of climate condition. The result shows that the runoff of Hulu River basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than to temperature change. When the temperature is lower and the precipitation is more, the response of runoff is the most acute and the trend is obviously increasing. However, it will decline for about 61% of the measured value under the contrary situation.