新疆“百里风区”强风天气预报方法

Strong wind forecast for the "100 km wind zone" in Xinjiang

在对新疆"百里风区"大风形成原因分析的基础上,使用2003-2006年的实况资料和在T213数值预报产品中,选取适当的预报因子,运用双重检验的逐步回归方案,建立了以12 h为一个预报时段的48 h大风预报方程.检验表明:以12 h为一个预报时段的48 h预报,2003-2006年的回代检验准确率和2007,2008年试报准确率均在75%以上,24 h内的预报准确率超过了80%.24～48 h的预报准确率也高于新疆气象台天气图方法预报结果.

Based on the analysis of the formation of strong winds at the “100 km wind zone” in Xinjiang, a wind forecasting system in 48 hour was established by using the predictor chosen between the data of routine meteorological element and T213 numerical prediction products from 2003 to 2006, and by using the stepwise regression method. The results are： for each forecast period in 48 h, the accuracy rate of back substitution testing with the data from 2003 to 2006 and the tring forecasting rate with the data of 2007 and 2008 are both higher than 75 percent, and especially, higher than 80 percent in 24 h. The forecast accuracy of 24-48h is also higher than the results achieved by the method of weather map forecasting.