基于生态位模型的番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布预测(英文)

Prediction of the potential distribution of Ceratitis anonae in China based on ecological niche modeling

番荔枝实蝇Ceratitis anonae(Graham)是一种重要的外来入侵性检疫害虫。在广东口岸,其幼虫连续从入境旅客所携带的水果中被检出。目前关于番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布的研究进行得很少,但对于我国的生物生态安全却有重要意义。本研究中,我们使用3种生态位模型(ENFA模型,马氏典型性模型和Maxent模型)对番荔枝实蝇在中国以及全球范围内的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测分析。结果显示:Maxent模型拥有最好的预测精确度,马氏典型性模型次之,而ENFA模型的预测精确度最差;Maxent模型和马氏典型性模型的预测精确度无显著性差异;根据Maxent模型的预测结果,番荔枝实蝇在中国的潜在适生区主要是广西、广东、海南以及云南的少部分地区。分析结果显示,番荔枝实蝇从境外传入中国南部地区并最终在上述地区定殖的风险可能性存在,但风险较小。另外,折刀法(Jackknife)分析显示,6种环境因子,例如地面霜冻频率、年平均降雨量、十月降雨量、四月降雨量、年最低温度以及蒸气压,对于番荔枝实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式有显著的影响。

Ceratitis anonae （Graham） is an important quarantine invasive pest in China and its larvae are continually intercepted from fruits carried by incoming phssengers at Guangdong ports. There are rare research reports about its potential distribution in China, but the geographic distribution of this species is of considerable concern in terms of biosecurity. In this study, three different ecological modeling methods （ENFA, Mahalanobis typicality and Maxent） were used to predict its potential distribution. The results show that Maxent has the best prediction performance, followed by Mahalanobis typicality, and ENFA has the poorest performance; and besides, the difference of prediction capabilities between Maxent and Mahalanobis typicality is not significant. Based on prediction outcome of Maxent, suitable areas of C. anonae in China are limited in Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and a few areas of Yunnan; and hence the probability of C. anonae permanently establishing in southern China exists but low. Jackknife analysis indicates that six variables have notable influence on the distribution pattern of C. anonae, i. e. ground frost frequency, annual mean precipitation, precipitation of October, precipitation of April, annual minimum temperature, and vapor pressure.