基于熵的干线公路通车里程组合预测

Arterial Highway Traffic Mileage Combining Forecasts Based on Entropy

干线公路通车里程预测是干线公路网规划的主要内容之一。以甘肃省1997～2007年干线公路通车里程为基础数据,分别采用回归分析法和灰色预测法进行拟合预测,鉴于单项预测方法的局限性,建立基于熵权法的组合预测模型,通过相关误差指标分析表明该组合模型能够提高预测精度,具有较强的理论与实际应用价值。

Forecasting the arterial highway traffic mileage is one of the arterial highway network planning. According to the data from 1997 to 2007, regression analysis and grey forecasting methods are used to forecast separately. For the limitation of each forecasting method, a combination forecasting model based on entropy is built. Through the relevant error index analysis, it shows that this model could improve the precision and has better value of theoretical and practical application.