芜湖市城市化气候变化特征分析

Characteristics of Urbanization on Climate Change of Wuhu City

运用R/S(Rescaled Range Analysis)方法,对芜湖市1953—2006年共54年间的气温、降水、相对湿度、日照等气象要素资料的年平均、冬季、夏季进行了分析计算。计算表明,各指标的Hurst指数均大于0.5,说明4个气象指标存在明显的Hurst现象,反映出芜湖市气候变化的特征与趋势,并预测了芜湖市气候未来的发展趋势,证明城市化已经对芜湖市气候变化产生了显著影响。

Based on R/S （Rescaled Range Analysis） analysis on mean temperature, water vapour pressure, relative humidity and sun shine percentage in winter, summer and annual mean from 1953 to 2006 in the past 54 years of Wuhu City, all the results indicated that the Hurst exponents of all the targets ware beyond 0.5, explained that four weather indicators existed obvious Hurst phenomenon, reflected the climatic change characteristic and the tendency of Wuhu City, and had forecast the climate future trend of development in Wuhu, and proven the urbanization had already influence to the Wuhu climate change.