规则和相机抉择因素在利率政策中的有效性分析

The Effectiveness Analysis of Rules and Discretion in Interest Rates Policy

近几年我国的央行行使的货币政策逐渐加强了政策的稳定性与持续性,目的是避免出现以往通货膨胀与通货紧缩交替的局面。而提高货币政策的有效性关键在于调整公众预期,即判断不可预期的和可预期的因素如何发挥作用。针对最近几年来尝试使用的利率政策工具,根据货币政策状态模型,将货币政策变化或者货币冲击分解成为规则部分和相机抉择部分,判断这些成分对于实际经济波动的解释效果。

From Central Bank＇s exercise of functions in recent years, it strengths the stabilization and durative to avoid inflation and deflation occurred altematively. The key to implement monetary policy effectively is to adjust the public＇s anticipation, which is to determine how the observed and unobserved components in monetary policy work. According to the interest policy in recent years, this paper establishes a State Space Model, and puts the monetary policy impulses into anticipated and unanticipated parts, and then it tests the effectiveness of these two components on China＇ s economy.