如何正确看待哥本哈根谈判

How to Correctly Look Upon the Copenhagen Climate Negotiation

《巴厘行动计划》确定了哥本哈根会议的框架性目标,但当前的谈判仍围绕着公平原则、全球减缓目标、全球排放峰值以及发达国家与发展中国家各自作为等问题展开激烈争论。哥本哈根进程将取决于排放超级大国主导下的集团博弈、京都第一承诺期的落实情况、经济危机的发展等要素的进展。多种迹象表明,哥本哈根会议难以取得较大成果。人们所应期待的是,作为长期谈判的哥本哈根进程,而非哥本哈根会议本身,能够切实减缓全球气候变化的趋势。

The Bali Action Plan set a frame goal for the Copenhagen Conference. Issues, justice, the global mitigation target, the global peak of GHG emission, and commitments developing countries, are still under large dispute in the current negotiation. The Copenhagen such as the principle of from the developed and process is going to rely on the progress of serial variants, including the group gambling dominated by the emission super powers, the fulfillment of commitment in the first period of Kyoto Protocol, as well as the development of the financial crisis. that it is quite difficult to achieve a big progress in the Copenhagen Conference. What we should Copenhagen process which will last for years, rather than the Copenhagen Conference itself, can Evidence indicates expect is that the really mitigate the global climate change.