电网规划设计中的风险评估应用

Risk Assessment Application in Power Grid Planning

通过总结分析国内外电网规划设计中的可靠性准则,研究了基于风险评估理论的可靠性评估方法在输电网规划设计中的应用。采用状态枚举法,将概率评估技术与电力系统可靠性评估结合,通过对表征电力系统充裕性和安全性的风险指标的量化处理,研究了系统抵御严重故障的能力,提出了纳入风险指标的电网规划设计框架。安全应用分析表明了风险评估方法的实用价值,是对传统电网规划设计方法的发展和完善。

While summarizing current reliability standards at home and abroad, application of reliability assessment method into power grid planning based on risk theories was studied. Probabilistic analysis and reliability assessment are combined to investigate the ability of a power system withstanding serious contingencies. The state enumeration method is used and risk indices,indicating the adequacy and security of a power system,are quantitated. A new frame of grid planning for power systems considering risk indices is then constructed. The practical application shows that the risk assessment method is valuable and beneficial to development and consummation of traditional power grid planning methods.