日最大降水量与时最大降水量于台湾地区频率分析适用性之研究

Maximum Rainfall in One Day and Maximum Rainfall in One Hour for the Applicability of Frequency Analysis Research in Taiwan Region

在台湾地区地形、环境特殊的情况下,再加上气候等因素,导致灾害频仍,而发生灾害之主因以降雨为主,故针对日最大降水量及时最大降水量进行频率分析,依气象站所设21个气象站分北、中、南、东4区域为分析对象,分析采用常态分布法、对数常态分布法、极端值第1类分布、皮尔逊第3类分布及对数皮尔逊第3类分布5种分布。以5种不同之频率分析方式求得各频率年(5,10,50,100,200a)之分析数值,再利用标准差检定法,寻求标准偏差最小之数值。由研究结果得知:无论是以日最大降雨量或时最大降雨量而言,台湾全区皆建议采用对数皮尔逊第3类分布作为频率分析之推估。

Under the exceptional circumstances with climate and other factors, led to frequent disasters in Taiwan, and the rainfall is the mainly factors of the occurrence of major disasters. According to the Central Meteorological Bureau at 21 weather stations distributed in northern, central, south, and east regions of Taiwan, undertake the frequency analysis for the maximum rainfall in one day and maximum rainfall in one hour, to analyze five different methods of frequency analysis, such as：the normal distribution, logarithmic normal distribution, the Extreme-value type Ⅰ distribution, Pearson type Ⅲ, log-Pearson type Ⅲ distribution. To obtain the different return periods （5, 10, 50 or 100 years, 200 years）, the standard deviation of the minimum value, for a suitable theory of the distribution. Results showed that： whether the maximum rainfall in one day or the maximum rainfall in one hour, the Taiwan region are proposed for the distribution of Pearson type IIf to estimate frequency analysis.