出口与全要素生产率——基于中国省际面板数据的经验分析

The Export and Total Factor Productivity based on Empirical Analysis of China's Provincial Panel Data

本文利用1980～2004年各省出口贸易和全要素生产率数据,分析了出口贸易技术溢出对我国全要素生产率增长的短期和长期影响。我们发现,无论是从全样本数据还是沿海或内陆地区样本数据,都证实了我国出口对TFP增长存在短期和长期效应。但就整体效果而言,出口对我国TFP产生了负面的影响。产生这一问题的首要原因可能和中国出口产品缺乏核心竞争力以及参与国际分工的格局密切相关。进一步分析表明,出口对TFP的影响在沿海和内地表现出不同的效果。沿海地区模型中,无论是技术溢出长短期效应还是整体效应都十分显著,且整体效应为正,即出口促进了TFP的增长;而内陆地区只有短期效应显著,且整体效应为负,即出口制约了TFP的增长。研究认为,人力资本积累水平差异是形成这种结果的原因。

This paper analyzed China's technological spillover effect in export trade since the reform and opening policy via China's provincial panel data from 1980 to 2004.The result shows that China's export trade has two effects to the total factor productivity, that is the short term effect and the long term effect.But to the total effect,China's high-speed development of export trade didn' t have positive effect on its TFP.The primary cause of this issue is that China's export products lack for its core competitiveness and the export strategy.In Coastal model,whatever both short and long term effects of technology spillovers,or the overall effect are very significant and positive,while the interior is only a significant short-term effects,and the overall effect is negative.This study suggested that differences in the level of human capital accumulation is the reason for the formation of such outcomes.