江苏小城镇人口发展的时空分异

SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGE OF SMALL TOWN POPULATION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

强调了小城镇人口研究的意义,采纳小城镇人口集聚度(Pt/Pr)和人口平均规模(Pta)2个指标,运用波士顿矩阵和地图分析法,分析了2000-2008年间江苏13个省辖市小城镇人口的时空变化,将不同时期的小城镇现状与变化特征归为明星、幼童、金牛、瘦狗4类。在此基础上,探讨并建立了小城镇人口集聚的影响机制模型。认为以地方产业经济要素为核心的内生机制是其根本动力,区域影响机制和外部作用机制通过内生机制而发生作用。并根据小城镇发展的时空特征提出引导不同小城镇发展的对策建议。

This paper analyzes the significance of study on population in small towns. Using the indexes of population concentration degree （Pt/Pr） and average population （Pta）, and the methods of Boston Matrix Model analysis and Map Analysis, it examines the spatio-temporal change of small towns under the jurisdiction of 13 municipalities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2008, and classifies the small towns at different stages into four categories involving cash cows, star, problem children and dog from the characteristic perspective. Then it sets up a model of influence mechanism on small town population agglomeration, and argues that the local industries are intrinsic and the regional factors are extrinsic to the development of small towns. According to the spatiotemporal characteristics of small towns, it provides advices on the development of towns of different categories, at different development stages and in different regions