水文气象学方法计算喜马拉雅山北坡冰川流域物质平衡

Computation on the Mass Balance of Glaciers in North Himalaya with a Hydro-meteorological Method

卡鲁雄曲是喜马拉雅山北坡唯一具有长期常规水文气象观测资料的冰川流域。根据中国冰川水文和气候的分布特征,可推导出一组以水文、气象观测数据计算流域冰川平均物质平衡的公式。据此恢复了1983～2006年卡鲁雄曲流域冰川平均物质平衡各分量的逐年值序列,并用SPSS软件对计算结果进行了统计分析。结果表明:1983～2006年的24a里,卡鲁雄曲流域的冰川消融逐步加剧:多年平均值为-136.3mm/a,前12a(1983～1994年)多年平均值为-83.61mm/a,后12a(1995～2006年)多年平均值为-188.98mm/a,且1986、1998和2005年出现较大的波动,冰川物质平衡值分别为:149.19mm、-654.36mm和-316.43mm。通过对影响冰川物质平衡动态变化的影响因素进行分析,发现冰川物质平衡变化主要由强烈消融期(5～9月)的平均温度决定,二者的相关系数达到-0.786,并具有很好的线性关系:MB=-331.8T5-9+2683.5。

The Karuxung catchment is a typical and unique area with a long term observations in the Tibet-Himalayas since 1983. A group of expressions, which can be used to calculate the mass balance of glacier based on hydro- logical and meteorological observation data, could been deduced according to the glacier hydrology and climate characteristics of the distribution in China. Using the conceptual method, the components of the mass balance of the glaciers in the Karuxung from 1983 to 2006 has been estimated. The result shows that： in the 24 years, the glaciers in Karuxung area is turning to retreat more quickly ; the averaged mass balance for 24 years was - 136. 3 mm/a. It was -83.61 mm/a in the first 12 years （from 1983 to 1994）, and reduces to - 188. 98 mm/a in the last 12 years （from 1995 to 2006）. The mass balance of glacier presents a greater fluctuation in 1986,1998 and 2005 respectively, with numbers of 149. 19 mm, -654. 36 mm and -316. 43 mm. After analyzing the reason of the change of the mass balance of the glaciers, it was found that the main reason was the average temperature of May to September. There was linear correlations between the mass balance of the glaciers and the average temperature , and the correlations coefficients reached to -0. 786.