房价波动、家庭财富配置与居民生活水平——来自长江、珠江三角洲地区的经验证据

The Effect of Price Fluctuations on Family Property Allocationand People's Life Quality——The Empirical Evidence from the Yangtze River and Zhujiang Delta Region

文章把房屋价值纳入消费者效用函数,在最优消费与投资组合理论的基础上,分析房价波动对微观家庭财富配置及居民生活水平的影响机理。用2000～2006年长江和珠江三角洲25个城市的面板数据,对理论假说进行了实证检验。研究表明,预期房价上涨会使消费者在本期家庭财富配置时增大房产部分的比重,但房屋的财富效应并不显著,短期内甚至会挤出消费。长期来看,房价上涨降低了居民生活水平,而短期内这种影响并不显著。

This paper analyses the impact mechanism of the housing price fluctuation on the allocation of family property and people＇s life quality by adapting the value of houses to the consumers＇utility function, and makes a demonstrative test to the hypothesis through the panel data of 25 cities in Yangtze and Zhujiang Delta from 2000 to 2006. The study shows, the expectant rise of housing price spurs customers to raise the ratio of housing value to the household wealth in current period. However, the wealth effect of houses is not remarkable, and what＇s more, in the short run, the consumption may be squeezed out by the high housing price. In the long run, the rising of the housing price decreases people＇s life quality, while in the short run, such impact is not remarkable.