Taylor规则在我国货币政策中的实证检验——基于时变隐性通货膨胀目标的新证据

An Empirical Test of Taylor Rule in China’s Monetary Policy: New Evidences from Time-varying Implicit Inflation Target

利用新凯恩斯理论框架下的状态空间模型,基于时变隐性通货膨胀目标对Taylor规则在我国货币政策中的适用性进行实证检验后发现,在时变隐性通货膨胀目标的条件下,Taylor规则在样本时期内是我国的一种稳定的货币政策规则,名义利率的变动基本上能够与Taylor规则的利率调整要求相符合;同时,实际通货膨胀率围绕隐性通货膨胀率波动,通货膨胀率缺口具有"阶段性"的特点。

By employing the state-space model in the framework of Neo-Keynesian theory, this paper conducts an empirical test on the applicability of Taylor Rule in China＇s monetary policy with the time-varying implicit inflation target. It is found that, under the conditions of the time-varying implicit inflation target, the Taylor Rule is a steady monetary policy rule in the sample time in China. The changes of the nominal interest rate can basically be in line with the requirement for interest rate adjustment of Taylor Rule. At the same time, the real inflation rate fluctuates around the implicit inflation rate; the inflation rate gap has the feature of ＂being in stages＂ .