水煤浆气化炉耐火砖损蚀量的灰色预测

Grey forecast for corrosive quantity of refractory bricks in coal-water slurry gasifier

针对水煤浆气化炉中耐火砖存在损蚀的特点,采用灰色预测理论建立了耐火砖损蚀量的不等时距GM(1,1)预测模型,并提出了模型的优化方法。通过预测值与实际值比较得出,GM(1,1)模型用于水煤浆气化炉中耐火砖损蚀量的预测是可行的;优化后的预测模型与实际值吻合较好。在模型优化过程中还发现,模型优化后平均相对误差由4.41%降为3.73%,最大相对误差也由14.36%降到9.09%,验证了优化方法的有效性。预测结果可为水煤浆气化炉耐火砖的研制及检修提供依据和指导。

In view of the corrosive characteristics of refractory bricks in coal-water slurry （CWS） gasifier, an unequal interval grey forecast model GM （ 1,1 ） was established on the basis of grey system theory, and an optimization method was raised. By comparing the predicted values with the actual values, it shows that GM （ 1,1 ） model for predicting the refractory corrosion is feasible and the optimized forecast model agrees well with the actual values. During optimization process, the average relative error of the model decreases from 4.41% to 3.73% and the maximum relative error reduces from 14.36% to 9.09%, so the validity of optimization method is verified. The prediction can provide with the basis and guidance for the development and repair of the refractory bricks in CWS gasifier.