陕西省地质灾害气象预报预警方法研究

STUDY OF EARLY-WARNING OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN WEATHER FORECASTING METHOD IN SHAANXI PROVINCE

地质灾害气象预报预警方法是近年来地质灾害防范的热点。由于不确定因素较多,预报方法及预报精度上还有待提高。根椐我省实际情况,选取影响地质灾害发生的主要地质因素并设计了地质背景条件下各致灾因素概率模型;根椐地质灾害主要引发因素的降雨量和初步确定的降雨量临界值;选取BP神经网络模型算法进行数学运算,最终形成预报预警产品,分等级预报,在实际预报预警中取得较好的效果。

Weather forecast warning of geological disasters is prevailing in prevention of geological disasters in recent years. As the more uncertainty, forecasting methods and forecast accuracy are still many problems. As noted in the actual situation in our province, select the impact of geological disasters in the main geological factors and design the geological background of the disaster-causing factors, the probabili under the condition of ty model; As noted in the main triggers of geological disasters in the rainfall, initially set the threshold rainfall province ; selection algorithm BP neural network model for mathematical calculations, the final form of early warning forecast products, sub-class forecasting in practice to get better early warning forecast results.