遗传BP神经网络的煤价预测与煤价风险规避策略

Coal price forecasting based on GABP neural network and risk resistance strategy

分析了影响煤炭市场价格的因素,然后建立了基于遗传算法的BP网络模型,对秦皇岛港煤炭市场价格进行了预测,通过实证分析和预测误差评价指标比较,基于遗传算法的BP神经网络模型相比普通BP神经网络模型预测在煤炭市场价格应用中能有效降低预测误差。最后提出了在当前市场煤价高位运行情况下发电企业如何最大限度降低煤价风险的对策。

First analyzed the factors influencing coal price. Then forecasted Qinhuangdao port coal price based on the GABP （Genetic Algorithm Back-Propagation） neural network model, tested by error evaluating indicator, GABP neural network model was advanced in coal price prediction compared by ordinary BP neural network model. Finally proposed risk resistance strategy for generation enterprises to cope with the fluctuation of coal price.