湿段天气在小麦赤霉病定量预报中的应用

APPLICATOIN OF THE HIGH-HUMID PERIOD OF WEATHER IN THE QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING OF WHEAT SCAB

通过本县小麦感病期内逐日气象观测资料统计分析,发现在该期内各日2:00、8:00、20:00的空气相对湿度达85％,14:00达82％,且在此湿度标准上持续30h以上,平均气温达12℃的湿段天气累计持续时间长,小麦赤霉病发生重。依据湿段天气在小麦感病的穗期开展赤霉病的短期定量预报,10年次的回报病穗率误差为2个百分点左右,7年次的预报病穗率误差为0.29～5.2个百分点。

According to the analysis of the meteorological statistical data every day during the susceptible stage of wheat scab in Hai'an County, it was discovered that the incidence of the scab depended upon the accumulative total hours of the weather, to be called the 'high-humid period of weather' , when the relative humidity reached 85% at 2:00, 8:00 and 20:00 and 82% at 14:00 with the average temperature ≥12≥ and continued for ≥30h. The short term quantitative forecasting for wheat scab was carried out during the earring and the flowering periods of wheat in accordance with the high-humid period of weather. The error of the rates of the diseased ears ranged from 0. 29% to 5% in a seven- year/time validation forecasting.