日光温室连阴天危害游程模拟分析

The Runs Simulation and Analysis of the Successive Overcast Weather for Its Harms to Sunlight Greenhouse Production

应用游程理论分析了日光温室连阴天危害发生的规律。对游程理论的模拟方法应用于日照时数序列表示的连阴天游程特征模拟的可行性进行了检验，发现；①冬季连阴天发生次数和连阴天长度期望值理论模拟结果与实际结果拟合良好，连阴天期间内日照时数缺乏量期望值须在理论模拟上加以修正；②连阴天长度的概率分布符合D．M．Hershfitld的几何分布。以河南省为例给出了连阴天长度的概率分布和各游程特征量的地域分布规律；确定了河南省日光温室发展的最佳地带；并在此基础上提出了生产建议。

The Runs Theory was applied to analyse the occuring rule of the successive overcast weather and verified the feasibility of applylng the Runs Simulated method to analysis the runs characters of the successive overcast weather in form of sunlight length series. The result shows that:①The simulated result and the real result of the occuring times and the length expectancy of successive overcast weather in the winter fits each other very well. The deficient amount of the insolation hours during the successive overcast weather must be revised based on the theoretical simulation value. ②The probability distribution of the length of successive overcast weather is in line with D. M. Hersh -fitld's geometric distribition. Taking the example of Henan province, the rule of the re-gional difference of the probability distribution of processive overcast weather length and the other runs characteristic variables were derived based on the research findings. The optimal region for the development of the sunlight greenhouse in the Henan Province also has been determined, and some productive proposals being put forward.